American League prime to backside

I spent the previous six weeks evaluating the 30 present big-league golf equipment in opposition to 1,258 groups from the span between 1976 and 2020, higher generally known as the period of free company. My intention was to search out tendencies from the previous which may assist us predict the longer term.

The method yielded the next predicted champions within the American League. Click on on the hyperlinks to revisit every 2023 divisional forecast:

My predictions for 2023 are based mostly on the next-year data for every present membership’s 50 closest matches (CMs) from the previous. I ranked the 15 American League golf equipment by the variety of CMs that certified for the playoffs of their subsequent seasons. I employed a progressive collection of stats to interrupt any ties: (1) CMs who received league titles, (2) CMs who received world championships, and (3) the present golf equipment’ data in 2022.

Listed beneath are the anticipated AL rankings for 2023, based mostly on my historic evaluation. Every membership’s 2022 report is adopted by its profitable share and postseason abbreviations (if relevant) of P for a playoff berth, L for a league championship, and W for a world title.

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  • Outcomes for 50 closest matches: 31 playoff qualifiers, 14 league titles, 8 world championships

  • Forecast for 2023 common season: 1st place in AL West

  • Qualify for 2023 playoffs: Sure, division champion

  • File in 2022: 106-56 (.654, WLP)

  • Outcomes for 50 closest matches: 23 playoff qualifiers, 7 league titles, 3 world championships

  • Forecast for 2023 common season: 1st place in AL East

  • Qualify for 2023 playoffs: Sure, division champion

  • File in 2022: 92-70 (.568, P)

  • Outcomes for 50 closest matches: 21 playoff qualifiers, 11 league titles, 5 world championships

  • Forecast for 2023 common season: 2nd place in AL East

  • Qualify for 2023 playoffs: Sure, wild-card qualifier

  • File in 2022: 86-76 (.531, P)

  • Outcomes for 50 closest matches: 21 playoff qualifiers, 5 league titles, 2 world championships

  • Forecast for 2023 common season: third place in AL East

  • Qualify for 2023 playoffs: Sure, wild-card qualifier

  • File in 2022: 99-63 (.611, P)

  • Outcomes for 50 closest matches: 14 playoff qualifiers, 3 league titles, 0 world championships

  • Forecast for 2023 common season: 2nd place in AL West

  • Qualify for 2023 playoffs: Sure, wild-card qualifier

  • File in 2022: 90-72 (.556, P)

  • Outcomes for 50 closest matches: 14 playoff qualifiers, 1 league title, 1 world championship

  • Forecast for 2023 common season: 1st place in AL Central

  • Qualify for 2023 playoffs: Sure, division champion

  • File in 2022: 92-70 (.568, P)

  • Outcomes for 50 closest matches: 13 playoff qualifiers, 2 league titles, 1 world championship

  • Forecast for 2023 common season: 4th place in AL East

  • Qualify for 2023 playoffs: No

  • File in 2022: 78-84 (.481)

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  • Outcomes for 50 closest matches: 11 playoff qualifiers, 1 league title, 1 world championship

  • Forecast for 2023 common season: 2nd place in AL Central

  • Qualify for 2023 playoffs: No

  • File in 2022: 81-81 (.500)

  • Outcomes for 50 closest matches: 8 playoff qualifiers, 2 league titles, 1 world championship

  • Forecast for 2023 common season: third place in AL Central

  • Qualify for 2023 playoffs: No

  • File in 2022: 78-84 (.481)

  • Outcomes for 50 closest matches: 8 playoff qualifiers, 2 league titles, 1 world championship

  • Forecast for 2023 common season: third place in AL West

  • Qualify for 2023 playoffs: No

  • File in 2022: 73-89 (.451)

  • Outcomes for 50 closest matches: 7 playoff qualifiers, 2 league titles, 0 world championships

  • Forecast for 2023 common season: fifth place in AL East

  • Qualify for 2023 playoffs: No

  • File in 2022: 83-79 (.512)

  • Outcomes for 50 closest matches: 7 playoff qualifiers, 0 league titles, 0 world championships

  • Forecast for 2023 common season: 4th place in AL West

  • Qualify for 2023 playoffs: No

  • File in 2022: 68-94 (.420)

  • Outcomes for 50 closest matches: 5 playoff qualifiers, 1 league title, 1 world championship

  • Forecast for 2023 common season: 4th place in AL Central

  • Qualify for 2023 playoffs: No

  • File in 2022: 65-97 (.401)

  • Outcomes for 50 closest matches: 3 playoff qualifiers, 1 league title, 1 world championship

  • Forecast for 2023 common season: fifth place in AL Central

  • Qualify for 2023 playoffs: No

  • File in 2022: 66-96 (.407)

  • Outcomes for 50 closest matches: 3 playoff qualifiers, 0 league titles, 0 world championships

  • Forecast for 2023 common season: fifth place in AL West

  • Qualify for 2023 playoffs: No

  • File in 2022: 60-102 (.370)

A whole rundown of 2022 stats — and a glance forward on the season to return

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