Breakouts needed: which Blue Jays may take huge steps ahead in 2023?

DUNEDIN, Fla. – Suppose again to final October, and the way baseball’s finest groups superior to the post-season. That they had superstars, after all, gamers like Aaron Decide, Justin Verlander and Mookie Betts. 

However past these established veterans, breakout gamers additionally emerged as key contributors for MLB’s finest groups in 2022. A yr in the past, it will have been unreasonable to depend on a lot from the gamers beneath, however these overachievers helped propel their respective groups to first-round byes:

Yankees, 99 wins, AL East title

Nestor Cortes (4.2 WAR), Matt Carpenter (2.4 WAR), Jose Trevino (2.3 WAR) and Oswaldo Cabrera (2.0 WAR)

Astros, 106 wins, AL West title

Jeremy Peña (4.9 WAR), Cristian Javier (3.7 WAR) and Ryne Stanek (2.2 WAR)

Atlanta, 101 wins, NL East title

Michael Harris II (5.3 WAR) and Spencer Strider (3.7 WAR)

Dodgers, 111 wins, NL West title

Tony Gonsolin (4.6 WAR), Tyler Anderson (4.3 WAR), Evan Phillips (2.8 WAR), Gavin Lux (2.5 WAR) and Trayce Thompson (2.0 WAR)

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To be honest, a few of these groups would have reached the playoffs even with out shock breakouts. As an illustration, the Mets gained 101 video games thanks principally to their established stars.

However surpassing expectations definitely turns into simpler when a participant or two overachieves. As Blue Jays pitching coach Pete Walker says, “you want that to occur in a championship yr.” The query now, is which groups will profit from these shock contributions?

In Blue Jays camp there’s optimism that some unheralded gamers will be part of stars like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette within the crew’s push for its first division title since 2015.

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In 2022, they loved breakouts from Ross Stripling and Santiago Espinal. A yr later, who’s subsequent? Yusei Kikuchi’s the plain title, however $36 million gamers don’t actually matter as breakouts. With apologies to two-time all-stars like Whit Merrifield and Jose Berrios, they’re not true breakout candidates both. Nonetheless, many others have the potential to emerge as influence contributors who generate 2.0 WAR just like the gamers above.

Conversations with gamers, coaches and executives in Blue Jays camp have helped determine these 5 gamers as breakout candidates in 2023…

The sinker specialist: Zach Pop

Now in competitors for the ultimate spot within the bullpen, Zach Pop has a sinker-slider mixture that has the potential to push him up the Blue Jays’ depth chart. The 26-year-old has elite velocity with a fastball that averaged 96.5 m.p.h. final yr – higher than 88 per cent of fellow big-leaguers.

He throws the sinker greater than three-quarters of the time, pairing it with a slider that retains opposing hitters from sitting fastball too comfortably.

“He’s an underrated arm proper now,” Walker stated. “He’s somebody that might step up, together with his type of stuff and have like a Clay Holmes sort of yr. He’s probably that type of man. The truth that he’s now throwing his sinker to either side of the plate and never only one aspect as evidenced (Wednesday). When he begins getting left handers out routinely he’s an elite reliever and never only a right-on-right man.”

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That Holmes comp can be ultimate for the Blue Jays. An all-star final yr, Holmes posted a 2.54 ERA with 65 strikeouts in 63.2 innings. Finest-case situation, Pop approaches these numbers in Toronto.

The versatile on-base menace: Cavan Biggio

Ask GM Ross Atkins about potential breakouts and it doesn’t take lengthy earlier than Biggio’s title comes up. The left-handed hitting 27-year-old fell off offensively in 2021 and 2022, however the ZiPS projection system nonetheless forecasts an above-average wRC+ of 108 for him in 2023.

Then there are the opposite facets to Biggio’s sport – the defensive versatility to play first base, second base and proper subject and the baserunning instincts which have allowed him to steal 25 bases in 26 profession makes an attempt. 

“Pace and baseball IQ is an effective combo,” supervisor John Schneider stated earlier this spring. “There’s energy, there’s on base, there’s nice defence, there’s nice baserunning. He brings all of it.”

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There are not any ensures right here. We’ve seen the draw back. However the Blue Jays are more likely to leverage Biggio’s profession .749 OPS towards right-handed pitching to search out beneficial matchups this coming season. Mixed with improved well being, that may very well be a recipe for a sneaky two- or three-win season.

The contact hitter: Otto Lopez

Taking part in for Canada on the World Baseball Basic, Lopez impressed in some high-pressure spots, flashing a bit energy in addition to the bat-to-ball abilities he’s identified finest for. Mix that displaying together with his 2022 season (he hit .297/.378/.415 in 91 triple-A video games final yr) and the best way Lopez carried out within the Grapefruit League and he appears to be like increasingly like somebody who can maintain his personal towards high-level pitching.

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A number one candidate to earn the ultimate spot on the Blue Jays’ bench (Nathan Lukes and Vinny Capra are the others), Lopez wouldn’t probably begin a lot at first. However it’s a protracted season – alternative typically emerges for many who earn it. 

Ideally, the Blue Jays don’t want Lopez a lot as a result of their starters are all producing. However there’s worth in having somebody who can put the bat on the ball, pinch-run and play nearly wherever.

The depth starter: Zach Thompson 

Whereas it’s conceivable the Blue Jays won’t want a bench bat like Lopez, there’s nearly no world wherein Thompson doesn’t get possibilities to begin in 2023. The truth is, he could be the primary layer of depth past the present rotation at a time that Mitch White’s nonetheless catching as much as his teammates.

“He’s somebody that’s definitely going to contribute this yr, and he may find yourself contributing in a giant method,” Walker stated. “He is aware of how you can pitch.”

Granted, it’s a giant ask. Thompson’s a waiver declare from the Pirates, not a significant free-agent acquisition, and there’s not a lot in the best way of certainty right here. However it is a listing of potential surprises and the Blue Jays have been working behind the scenes with the right-hander on some changes they’re hoping pays dividends.

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Ben Nicholson-Smith is Sportsnet’s baseball editor. Arden Zwelling is a senior writer. Together, they bring you the most in-depth Blue Jays podcast in the league, covering off all the latest news with opinion and analysis, as well as interviews with other insiders and team members.

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Based on Walker, a number of the identical changes that labored for Stripling might find yourself benefitting Thompson, too.

The high-velo gamble: Nate Pearson

Accidents have robbed Pearson of beneficial possibilities to pitch in recent times, so he now not appears to be like just like the organizational constructing block he as soon as did. Regardless, he can nonetheless mild up a radar gun with a fastball that approaches 100 m.p.h. 

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At this stage, he seems more likely to open the season as a reliever at triple-A, but when he’s throwing constant strikes together with his fastball and slider, chances are high good that he’ll be capable of pressure his method onto the Blue Jays’ roster earlier than lengthy. 

As with all gamers on this listing, there’s the potential the season doesn’t go as deliberate for Pearson. However the upside right here stays vital – he may very well be a high-leverage reliever getting huge outs late within the yr. So whereas it’s not honest to depend on Pearson after a yr wherein he didn’t seem within the majors, ruling him out can be silly, too.