Driving down the stretch – by G. Scott Thomas

Main League Baseball has reached the three-quarter mark. Golf equipment have labored their method by means of 4 and a half months of 2023’s schedule, leaving a month and a half to go.

What comes after the three-quarter pole in a horse race? The stretch drive, in fact. A frenzied, no-holds-barred surge towards the end line.

That’s exactly what lies forward for MLB. It’s generally accepted that baseball’s last stretch begins on September 1, which is 2 weeks from this coming Friday. Contenders will ignite their afterburners — if they will — to amass the required momentum to clinch berths within the postseason match.

It’s finest, in fact, to start the stretch drive from a place of energy.

I analyzed the standings as of the morning of September 1 for yearly within the Trendy Period (1961-2022), aside from the Covid-shortened schedule of 2020. If all of these seasons had ended on that date, a particular group of 358 groups would have made the playoffs. Eighty-four % of them — a complete of 302 golf equipment — really certified a month later.

Meaning solely 56 groups mounted profitable stretch drives after September 1. They snatched postseason berths in that last month from groups that had outperformed them within the earlier 5 months.

Fifty-six profitable stretch drives in 61 seasons — a mean of barely lower than one per 12 months. It’s clearly not a straightforward trick to tug off.

These 56 resurgent squads, by the way in which, posted common data after September 1 of 19.5 wins and 9.7 losses — for a profitable share of .668. They strained to succeed in the tape earlier than their rivals did, they usually succeeded.

Look beneath for lists of the highest and backside golf equipment of the Trendy Period in 4 stretch-drive classes, all ranked by profitable percentages after the tip of August.

Probably the most fascinating checklist, I feel, is the primary one. It’s a rundown of one of the best surges — that’s, the best finishes by golf equipment that wouldn’t have certified for the postseason on September 1, but by some means made it throughout the wire by the tip.

Atop that checklist are the 1974 Baltimore Orioles, who posted a pedestrian 66-65 report through the first 5 months of the season, leaving them six video games off the tempo within the American League East. They caught hearth within the last month, going 25-6 for an .806 profitable share and taking the divisional title.

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1. Orioles 1974 (by means of August: 66-65, .504; afterward: 25-6, .806)
2. Yankees 1995 (by means of August: 57-59, .491; afterward: 22-6, .786)
3. Indians 2013 (by means of August: 71-64, .526; afterward: 21-6, .778)
4. Astros 2004 (by means of August: 69-63, .523; afterward: 23-7, .767)
5. Athletics 2000 (by means of August: 69-63, .523; afterward: 22-7, .759)
6. Mets 1969 (by means of August: 76-54, .585; afterward: 24-8, .750)
7. Phillies 1983 (by means of August: 67-64, .511; afterward: 23-8, .742)
8. Braves 1969 (by means of August: 73-62, .541; afterward: 20-7, .741)
8. Brewers 2019 (by means of August: 69-66, .511; afterward: 20-7, .741)
10. Braves 1993 (by means of August: 82-50, .621; afterward: 22-8, .733)
Notes: The Orioles, as beforehand famous, salvaged a .500 season with their unbelievable stretch drive in 1974. They lastly cooled down within the American League Championship Sequence, which they misplaced to the Athletics. Most of those surging golf equipment met the same destiny, finally working out of fuel within the playoffs. Solely two made it to the World Sequence — the 1969 Mets and the 1983 Phillies — and New York turned the only winner of the last word title.

1. Padres 2021 (by means of August: 72-62, .537; afterward: 7-21, .250)
2. Purple Sox 2011 (by means of August: 83-52, .615; afterward: 7-20, .259)
3. Diamondbacks 2018 (by means of August: 74-61, .548; afterward: 8-19, .296)
4. Astros 1996 (by means of August: 74-63, .540; afterward: 8-17, .320)
5. Cubs 1969 (by means of August: 83-52, .615; afterward: 9-18, .333)
5. Braves 2011 (by means of August: 80-55, .593; afterward: 9-18, .333)
7. Brewers 2014 (by means of August: 73-63, .537; afterward: 9-17, .346)
8. Angels 1998 (by means of August: 76-62, .551; afterward: 9-15, .375)
9. Purple Sox 1974 (by means of August: 72-59, .550; afterward: 12-19, .387)
10. Angels 1995 (by means of August: 67-50, .573; afterward: 11-17, .393)
Notes: That is the other of the earlier checklist. A collapse entails any membership that will have made the playoffs on the finish of August, however fell brief a month later. No crew fizzled as dramatically because the San Diego Padres in 2021. They had been 10 video games above .500 at the start of the stretch drive, ticketing them for a wild-card berth. However their 7-21 end — lowlighted by a seven-game shedding streak — pushed them out of the hunt.

1. Indians 2017 (by means of August: 76-56, .576; afterward: 26-4, .867)
2. Athletics 2001 (by means of August: 79-56, .585; afterward: 23-4, .852)
3. Royals 1977 (by means of August: 76-54, .585; afterward: 26-6, .813)
4. Orioles 1974 (by means of August: 66-65, .504; afterward: 25-6, .806)
5. White Sox 1983 (by means of August: 75-57, .568; afterward: 24-6, .800)
6. Mets 1988 (by means of August: 78-54, .591; afterward: 22-6, .786)
6. Yankees 1995 (by means of August: 57-59, .491; afterward: 22-6, .786)
8. Cardinals 2002 (by means of August: 76-59, .563; afterward: 21-6, .778)
8. Indians 2013 (by means of August: 71-64, .526; afterward: 21-6, .778)
8. Astros 2018 (by means of August: 82-53, .607; afterward: 21-6, .778)
Notes: The ultimate two lists cowl all groups within the Trendy Period, no matter their playoff standing on September 1. No crew ever acquired hotter down the stretch than the 2017 Cleveland Indians, who received 22 straight video games between late August and mid-September. All 10 golf equipment on this checklist made the playoffs, however (apparently sufficient) none of them received a world championship or perhaps a league title. A lot for the worth of momentum.

1. Orioles 2002 (by means of August: 63-71, .470; afterward: 4-24, .143)
2. Blue Jays 1978 (by means of August: 55-80, .407; afterward: 4-22, .154)
2. Tigers 1996 (by means of August: 49-87, .360; afterward: 4-22, .154)
4. Rangers 1972 (by means of August: 49-76, .392; afterward: 5-24, .172)
5. Pirates 1998 (by means of August: 64-71, .474; afterward: 5-22, .185)
6. Tigers 1975 (by means of August: 52-81, .391; afterward: 5-21, .192)
6. Tigers 2002 (by means of August: 50-85, .370; afterward: 5-21, .192)
6. Giants 2018 (by means of August: 68-68, .500; afterward: 5-21, .192)
9. Tigers 2017 (by means of August: 58-74, .439; afterward: 6-24, .200)
9. Orioles 2008 (by means of August: 63-73, .463; afterward: 5-20, .200)
Notes: The Orioles actually weren’t of championship caliber in 2002, however they didn’t appear horrible, both. That they had a .500 report as late as August 23, they usually nonetheless sat at 63-71 on the finish of the month. However a disastrous report of 4-24 down the stretch dropped Baltimore to a depressing last mark of 67-95. The 1978 Blue Jays and 1996 Tigers had been almost as dangerous on the finish, every going 4-22.