Maybe the third time would be the attraction for the Los Angeles Dodgers.
At present brings the ultimate installment of my third annual set of season predictions. I envisioned the Dodgers making the World Collection in 2021 and 2022 — and I’m sticking with them in 2023.
The earlier forecasts didn’t work out so nicely. I had the Chicago White Sox defeating the Dodgers within the World Collection two years in the past, and Los Angeles beating the Tampa Bay Rays final 12 months.
The precise World Collection outcomes, as you’ll recall, have been the Atlanta Braves triumphing over the Houston Astros in 2021 and the Astros eliminating the Philadelphia Phillies in 2022.
That brings us to 2023. I started by issuing a sequence of predictions for the six divisions:
Then I simulated October’s postseason motion. I ran every playoff sequence 1,000 instances, primarily based on the regular-season workforce scores projected by my system. (Click on right here for a refresher course on TS.) The workforce that gained nearly all of my simulations superior to the following spherical.
The Dodgers once more emerged from this course of because the champions of the Nationwide League, whereas the Astros retained their grip on the American League.
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I simulated the World Collection 10,000 instances, increasing my regular course of by 10. The outcomes have been sure to be shut, given the truth that the projected workforce scores for the 2 golf equipment are just about equivalent:
Los Angeles, TS 64.504
Houston, TS 64.358
The Dodgers’ skinny margin proved to be the distinction once I ran the simulations. Los Angeles gained 5,102 of the sequence, in comparison with 4,898 for Houston.
That’s basically a 51-49 break up, solely barely higher than a coin flip. However it’s adequate to put in the Dodgers as my favorites to stroll away with the World Collection trophy on the finish of the upcoming season.
Not a nasty forecast for a workforce that has been overshadowed all winter by the uninhibited spending habits of its southern neighbor, the San Diego Padres. The largest query is whether or not my 2023 forecast will pan out higher than its two predecessors.
The Dodgers can solely hope that it does.
A whole rundown of 2022 stats — and a glance forward on the season to return